UFC 111 Picks and Licks
Picks and Licks returns. We had to make some changes to the blog. I hope you like what you see and read. So let’s get right to it. UFC 111 in New Jersey is a stacked card. Obviously the Main Event of St. Pierre vs Hardy is an exciting match up (is it really?) Mir vs Carwin, makes for an interesting fight. I still laugh when they call it a title fight. Let’s be honest, it’s an Interim Title. It’s the “Willie Wonka Golden Ticket” of combat sports. The winner of that fight will become the number one contender for the real UFC Heavyweight Champ Brock Lesnar. So I chuckle a bit when the UFC pushes this card as two titles on the line. Maybe 1.5 titles.
Prediction time. Like I always say, don’t take these picks to the bookie. I don’t want to be responsible when you lose your shirt or house. However I do want to be responsible when you win a few grand, cough it up.
Jim Miller vs Mark Bocek: This is an interesting fight in that both fighters are on a three fight winning streak. Jim Miller has looked very impressive in his last few outings. He put Duane Ludwig into an arm lock about 2mins into the first round at UFC 108. He has beaten some solid competition in the 155 pound division. Bocek in my opinion has looked equally impressive, and has shown some incredible ground skills. He likes to choke guys out. In fact his last three fights have been by submission (choke.) This is a tough fight to call, but I believe the ground game could cancel out. That leaves me with Miller being the superior striker. Look for this fight to go to a decision. I’m going to take Jim Miller by unanimous decision. I see him landing more kicks and punches, and not allowing Bocek to take him to the ground at will.
Ben Saunders vs John Fitch: Due to a CT Scan that showed Alves had a brain irregularity, the original fight that was supposed to be between Alves and Fitch was canceled. However Ben Saunders stepped up in competition and will now be taking on John Fitch. Saunders is a lanky welterweight with some serious Muay Thai Skills. He likes to use his gumby arms and pull his opponents into the clinch and throw vicious knees and elbows. Lucky for Ben, Fitch likes the clinch too. Look for Fitch to take this fight to the ground. However, Saunders is a guy that is great on his back, and he can take those long legs of his and work submissions and move into better positions. Fitch is a gamer, and with little preparation for both of these fighters, I expect Fitch to pull off the victory. He spent months preparing for Alves who has some vicious Muay Thai as well. The game plan will probably not change that much. Look for Fitch to be patient and try to get on the inside of Saunders. This is going to be a close fight, but I’m taking Fitch via Unanimous Decision. I think experience wins out here. Fitch won’t get any style points for the win (he never does) and it will be another Fitch Decision.
Kurt Pellegrino vs Fabricio Camoes: Due to the Fitch vs Alves fight being changed and Saunders moving up to be the new opponent, this under card fight has been moved up to the main card. Cameos had his octagon debut against Caol Uno at UFC 106 end in a draw due to a point deduction to Cameos. He now finds himself fighting an experienced Kurt Pellegrino who has won his last three UFC fights. Pellegrino likes to take guys down and ground n’ pound. He also has excellent BJJ. Although Cameos showed some good take down defense against Uno, Pellegrino comes with more of a wrestling pedigree and has shown that he can take guys down at will. For Camoes to win this fight he will have to rely on his striking and stuffing all take downs. To me this is Pellegrino’s fight via TKO.
INTERIM HEAVY WEIGHT TITLE
Frank Mir vs Shane Carwin: Don’t expect this fight to go to the judges. It is going to end badly for someone. The question is who? We have seen Carwin make short work of all his UFC opponents by KO or TKO. None of Carwin’s fights have gone past the first round. Carwin is a Monster. He posses massive punching power, even a short jab can make an opponent fall to sleep. What we haven’t seen yet in the UFC is his tremendous wrestling. Carwin is a big man, who like Brock Lesnar, has a very decorated amateur wrestling past. As for Frank Mir, what hasn’t been said? He is probably one of the best technical Heavy Weights out there. His submissions are legendary, and his stand up has improved immensely. He made Cheik Kongo look silly in his last fight, by dropping him with a punch and choking him out a minute into the first round. Frank’s obsession with Brock Lesnar has changed him. He has used that motivation to get bigger and stronger. He now loses weight to make 265. Look for Mir to come into this fight like he did against Kongo, bulked up and motivated to make a statement. He wants a third match with Lesnar badly, and I’m sure the UFC would love to see it. Carwin has been on the shelf for a while. He hasn’t fought since March 9th of 2009. Through that, there was an injury, illness and of course Brock Lesnar’s well publicized battle with diverticulitis. It has been an emotional roller coaster for Shane Carwin.
To say Carwin has a puncher’s chance in this fight is a understatement. I still believe that all though Mir is very well rounded, I think his chin is suspect. I’m also interested to see how Mir deals with Carwin’s power on the ground. Will the added bulk on Mir slow him down in the later rounds? We have never seen Carwin past the first round, so what is his conditioning like in Championship rounds? A lot of questions, but only one prediction. I’m taking Shane Carwin by TKO. I think Carwin posses a lot of the same skills Lesnar does. This fight will be very close, but I see Mir getting dropped with a punch and Carwin finishing him off with a referee stoppage. Carwin’s wrestling base will be the equalizer, as I think it will be tough for Mir to take Carwin down or work any sort of submission. It looks like most experts are taking Mir, but I just have a hunch on this one.
MAIN EVENT
UFC WELTERWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP BELT – George St-Pierre vs Dan Hardy: I love how the UFC is trying to build this fight. There has been some trash talk on Hardy’s side, but that isn’t surprising. But what I find funny is that Hardy hasn’t been that creative with it yet. The whole I’m going to KO GSP and shock the world has been said before. You gotta love Hardy’s confidence and personality. I respect Hardy as a fighter, but there is no way this fight even makes it to the fifth round. GSP is going to make a huge statement. The first statement is GSP’s stand up game is lethal. Sure a lot of GSP’s previous fights have gone to the ground, and why not, he is the best wrestler in MMA…period.
People forget how good GSP’s stand up is. Look for GSP to switch it up like he did against Alves. He will throw some precise shots and move. George will be very elusive, and that will frustrate Hardy off the bat. You can’t counter punch an opponent when you can’t catch him. GSP will push the pace, and when the time is right, the take down will be there with ease. I know I’m breaking down a fight that most people know how it’s going to end. I just want to tell all those people that think Hardy has a chance, to realize that GSP is a different fighter since Matt Serra. He has a better training regiment, and a better state of mind. This whole theory that GSP has a weak chin is garbage. First off, if you watch the first Matt Serra fight, he doesn’t hit GSP in the chin. He hits him in the back of the head, which throws GSP off balance (hit yourself really hard in that spot and see what your equilibrium is like…come on do it!) and Serra’s hard punches finished him off. Anyway, my prediction is this: Dan Hardy via KO.
Kidding. Take GSP by TKO. There will be no upset. This is a guy who stood with Alves and BJ Penn. This is a champion who unfortunately does not have a formidable challenger in the UFC at that weight class. Should he move up to middleweight? No I think GSP should fight Jake Shields first.
My Picks Overview
- Jim Miller
- Jon Fitch
- Kurt Pellegrino
- Shane Carwin
- George St.Pierre
LICKS
Jake Shields?? Did I just say that? but, but..he’s in Strikeforce! Jake Shields has one more fight with Strikeforce and that is against Dan Henderson on April 17th. After that his contract is up. The rumor is that the UFC is going to throw some money at Jake that Strikeforce would have a tough time matching. This is good news for fighters. Why? because you are seeing the result of what competition does amongst organizations. The UFC is the big boy on the block in the MMA world. However Strikeforce has evolved over the last couple of years. They are still very top heavy in each division, with not a lot of depth. But right now Strikeforce can afford to do that, when they are doing shows every couple of months. However, one thing to look out for is the over paying of athletes that could hurt the bottom line. This is what Dana White is banking on when it comes to the possible demise of Strikeforce and Dream. Every time a young, up and coming fighter becomes a free agent, you know the UFC has the dollars to make it difficult for other organizations to match. They will not throw dollars needlessly, IE: Dan Henderson who wanted the moon, but I feel the UFC felt he is at the tail end of this career. That kind of money should be spent on talented younger fighters that can be built. Secondly, fighters like Nick Diaz, and Jake Shields will want to explore more competition. The UFC has plenty.
The mighty dollar will lure guys like Diaz, Shields and even Gegard Mousasi, to the UFC eventually. Fedor? that’s another story. It seems to me that Fedor is not really looking for challenges, just business deals. Due to Fedor’s stake in M-1 Global the UFC will not deal with the “Crazy Russians.” There is no way the UFC will co-promote in order to land Fedor. So instead for now, we will see Fedor fight second rate Heavyweights in Strikeforce and Dream. For now.
I do believe Fedor will end up in the UFC at some point, but he will be past his best before date.
Check out this article on the courting of Jake Shields, courtesy of Sherdog.
In closing, for those of you that live in Vancouver. There is a MMA Event coming on May 7th courtesy of Honour Combat Championships. Look at it as an appetizer before the UFC in June. If you have never been to a live MMA event, I highly recommend that you go to this show. It will be more than just a sporting event, it will be an experience. Check out their website at honourcombat.com. They will be at the Vancouver MMA Expo and tickets will be available to be purchased online by April 10th. The “Vancouver” MMA Expo is on April 10th and 11th at the Tradex in Abbotsford. Should be a fun couple of days. Come and check it out.
I am also going to be co-hosting on MMASucka Radio. I will be a part of the UFC 111 round table on Saturday at 2pm. Go to mmasucka.com and click on the radio show and you can listen to all our picks and analysis. Should be fun. Take care, and look for more Blogs coming. I’d love to hear your feedback.
Cheers!
