UFC 109 Picks and Licks
Finally. Due to the Christmas holidays and a lengthy vacation with the inlaws (a whole other topic for another blog), it is time for my first 2010 edition of Picks and Licks for UFC 109. Last year I finished .500, which isn’t bad, but this year I look to keep things in the positive. So let’s begin.
The first fight on the Main card at the Mandalay Bay in Las Vegas is:
Matt Serra vs Frank Trigg: I smell a KO in this fight. Trigg got a beating against Josh Koscheck at UFC 103, where Frank Trigg looked completely over matched. Let’s be honest, this a fight of two men who may have seen better days in their career. However, isn’t that the overall theme of this card, IE: The Main Event. Whatever the case, not every fight needs to have title implications. Usually these fights are the ones that entertain, and isn’t that all that matters? You have the wrestling ability and heart of Trigg, versus the KO power and jiu-jitsu of Matt Serra. There has been a ton of trash talk leading up to this fight, as both men know how to sell it. Now who wins? Take Matt “The Terror” Serra via KO. I just don’t think Trigg has the chin to last.
Demian Maia vs. Dan Miller: After a brutal KO loss to Nate Marquardt at UFC 102, Demian Maia looks to rebound against a very talented Dan Miller. Dan has four fights in the UFC and two of his three wins have been by submission, the other by decision. My guess Mr. Miller will not be going for any kind of takedown. Maia is probably the best ground technician in MMA. Demian, tried to throw a bit against Marquardt and got caught, a mistake you know he will not make again. Look for Demian Maia to be a lot more patient and work Dan Miller into his web of submissions. This fight will end up on the ground. Dan Miller will show some heart and put up a good fight, but expect the inevitable, a submission win for Demian Maia.
Mike Swick vs Paulo Thiago: Originally this was to be a rematch between Josh Koscheck and Thiago, but KOS had to drop out of the fight due to an injury, so his teammate Swick took the fight on short notice. If you remember Dan Hardy beat Swick at UFC 105 via unanimous decision. With that fight fresh in Swick’s mind, you have to believe that even on short notice Mike is ready to put that behind him with a win over a top welterweight in Paulo Thiago. At UFC 106 Thiago had a lack luster unanimous decision against Jacob Volkmann. One thing Paulo does have is a KO win over Swick’s teammate Josh Koscheck. They don’t call Mike “Quick” Swick for nothing. Let us not forget the KO power Mike has in his feet and hands. He throws a mean right cross. Paulo has a great chin, and can throw some really nice combinations of his own. A lot of people are taking Swick in this fight. I’m going with my gut (never a good idea) and taking Mike “Quick” Swick via KO. See..how I did that? You thought I was going to take Paulo Thiago…but I didn’t. I think it will be an impressive performance for Mike, and possibly set up a match between Swick and Anthony Johnson. I do want to see Paulo Thiago take this, but I just don’t think it’s in the cards. Mike Swick via KO.
Nate Marquardt vs. Chael Sonnen: I’m looking forward to this fight the most. In my opinion should be the Main Event. Chael Sonnen has had an up and down career, where Nate has kept things pretty consistent in the winning category. It has been amazing to watch how Nate Marquardt has evolved into a complete, all round fighter. It is apparent that the Jackson training camp has helped in making him one of the best middleweights in the world. Chael Sonnen, when he’s not talking, he does have some great wrestling ability and he can grind. Chael is known to take fights all three rounds and grind out decision victories, he is one tough customer. It is very tough to knock Chael out. When he loses, it is usually to a submission. One thing Chael can do is take guys down. This is going to be a very tough fight for Nate, in that he will have to remain patient and wait for Sonnen to make a mistake. Nate “The Great” has a very strong stand up game and can counter strike. Chael’s stand up is weak, and really only uses it to set up take downs. However, with the evolution of Nate Marquardt, we may see some very good take down defense. This is a guy who trains with the best wrestler in MMA in GSP. Look for Nate to take this fight in the third round with a KO victory. I think Marquardt is a stronger fighter and has a more complete game than Chael Sonnen. It will be a tough fight, but Nate “The Great” Marquardt takes the win, and becomes the number one contender in the Middlweight division.
MAIN EVENT
Randy Couture vs Mark Coleman: What can I say about this one? Both men are freaks of nature, but I think that has been said every time they enter the Octagon. This is a interesting fight just in the fact that these two old hall of famers are at the end of their careers..again. Randy has dropped down to the light heavy weight class…again…and took a controversial decision win against Brandon Vera at UFC 105. In my opinion Couture didn’t win that fight. He was able to control Vera along the cage, but really didn’t do much. If you call self defense a win, you’re crazy. Vera did more damage. But alas, we see the UFC trying to push the legend of Randy Couture. Apparently if he wins, he is in line for a title shot….really? I can think of two or three more guys that are a head of Couture. However, the UFC marketing machine moves on. This fight will start off entertaining, but I think Couture will start break Coleman down with strikes and take down defense. Couture is an old man, but I think his skills are still relevant, and especially against Coleman. Even though Mark Coleman is stuck in the 90′s MMA, expect a lot of heart and will. How full is the Coleman gas tank? Especially when Randy will make things very difficult. Yes we saw Coleman beat Bonnar at UFC 100, however, Bonnar beat himself when he came to the Octagon with no serious game plan and took Coleman lightly. Couture will not make that mistake. Take Randy Couture in this fight. How? I don’t know, a TKO sounds good to me.
LICKS
Nick Diaz keeps shooting off his mouth, calling out GSP. Someone needs to tell Nick Diaz that he fights for Strikeforce. He is starting to complain that there isn’t enough competition for him in Strikeforce, and that he wants the big fights. Message to Nick, play by the rules and act like a professional, and you may get your wish. Dana White went on record the other day to compliment Nick Diaz, and that he probably does belong in the UFC. The problem is, that Nick likes to fight in hospitals, skip drug tests, and we could go on. There is nothing wrong on being a super UBER talented force like Diaz and be the Bad Guy. In fact it is known to sell fights, merchandise, and build a niche fan base. Just ask Brock Lesnar. However, professionalism does come into play, even if the UFC does have a double standard on that subject matter. Expect Nick Diaz to fight in the UFC once his Strikeforce contract is done. Sure he makes good money ($100,000) in his last fight, but what it will come down to is competition. Nick is moving up the ladders of the pound for pound rankings and soon he will not be able to ignore where the big fights are.
As for Strikeforce, I really enjoy watching their product. Cyborg Santos is a woman who will not get beat anytime soon. As I was watching that fight, I kept thinking, she should fight men. Is this a crazy thought?
Hershal Walker beat a punching bag for his first professional MMA win. I’m happy for the guy. He had a goal and he made it happen. He trained hard, gave his winnings to charity, and was very professional about the whole ordeal. What is in the future? I can see Strikeforce squeezing a few drops out of this spunge, and maybe throwing him in the cage one or two more times. Jose Canseco? Please God no. But remember this, MMA was built on freak shows, so it wouldn’t be crazy to see Canseco vs Walker. You know you would watch. Guilty pleasures strike at us all. Honestly if both men want to get it on, and treat the sport with total respect, can we really say no? It’s a quick cash cow for Strikeforce; I can see this happening. Up next, the three eyed, hairy woman.
Apparently the UFC is going to have Chuck Liddell vs Tito Ortiz 3, June 12 in Vancouver. Wow!!! how about that for Vancouver’s first UFC Event. Lesnar is expect to fight the following month in Las Vegas. After all the shit that Lesnar spewed about Canada’s health system, it would of been nice to see him fight in Canada. Come on! the man knows how to be a heel. I’m still wondering what the UFC has planned for Vancouver, so far I’m expecting a lack luster card.
There….I got my licks in. Now time to go to the Bay and buy some Olympic gear, go to Costco, drop the wife and kid off at home, head to the bar, and watch some fights. Sounds like a good day. Check out Honour Combat Championships and our Facebook Page. Aurevoir!
